Model Track Record
Verified signal performance. All picks, all results — no cherry-picking.
Closing Line Win %
Share of settled picks that beat the market's actual closing line — the primary credibility metric, not win/loss on any single game.
Formula: picks with realized CLV > 0 ÷ picks with a captured closing line
Beating the closing line consistently is what predicts long-run edge, independent of single-game variance.
Win Rate
Wins ÷ (wins + losses + pushes). Shown for reference only.
Formula: wins ÷ (wins + losses + pushes)
Doesn't account for the odds paid on each side — see Closing Line Win % for the real quality signal.
ROI
Net profit ÷ total staked across all settled picks (1 unit per pick unless a real stake is recorded).
The bottom-line financial outcome, though CLV is the more predictive leading indicator at low sample sizes.
Avg Realized CLV
Average CLV measured against the actual closing line, not a pre-game projection.
The number that should trend as the model calibrates.
Model Breakdown
| Model | Picks | Win Rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| elo | 38 | 57.9% | +60.4% |
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Start Free →Win rate and ROI calculated on all settled picks. Realized CLV measured against the actual market closing line captured at kickoff — hover any metric above for its exact definition and sample size. Updated every 5 minutes. Last updated: 10:50 AM